As Trump Fumbles, Putin Prepares to Invade Neighbours

2/22

Stephen Blank9 hrs ago

Recent Russian actions suggest a new stage of the Russian threat to Ukraine—and potentially to the Caucasus, Belarus or the Baltic states as well—that could presage a new large-scale military operation.
First, in 2016, Russia created 25 division formations and 15 brigades, while raising manpower by only 10,000 men. This suggests the possibility that Russia may aim to wage protracted large-scale war using the Soviet model, with a Soviet-type army composed of “skeleton units” that existed solely on paper until they were called up as part of the process of mass mobilization.
That such mobilization may be under consideration is apparent from the Kavkaz-2016 and other military exercises in 2016 where Moscow mobilized forces from the Ministry of Interior, banks to pay soldiers’ wages in the fields and hospitals to provide field hospitals, as well as entire provincial civilian administrations. Russia is apparently thinking about possible protracted contingencies and is returning to fantasies of a Soviet-type military and mobilization effort.
Second, as part of that military process in 2016-2017, Moscow created the 1st Guards Tank Army, the 40th Army and the 8th Army, and deployed them all around Ukraine’s borders. The 8th Army headquarters is at Rostov-On-Don, from where it could strike toward the Caucasus if necessary, or be air- or sea-lifted to the Middle East.
Moreover, any of these armies could quickly be moved toward Belarus to put down unrest there, if Belarus’s government cannot or will not do so.
In addition, Russia has created four new divisions: the 150th Motorized Rifle Division in the Rostov region, the 10th Armored Division and the 3rd Mechanized Division in the Voronezh region, and the 144th Motorized Rifle Division near Smolensk. They will be headquartered 50, 45 and 255 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, respectively.
In addition, the headquarters of the Russian 20th Army has been moved closer to Ukraine, from its former base east of Moscow to Voronezh.
And three motorized rifle brigades that were previously located deep inside Russian territory, near Kazakhstan and in the Volga Basin, are also being shifted westward. They will be based in the Belgorod, Bryansk and Voronezh regions, all less than 50 kilometres from the Ukrainian border.
More recent deployments are even more ominous. On March 8, Moscow announced that the Russian Navy would prioritize ships capable of carrying troops that can perform amphibious operations, which could easily be used against Ukraine, the Balkans, the Caucasus or in the Middle East.
On the weekend of March 24, observers recorded dozens of tanks deploying at Pokrovskoye in the southern Rostov-On-the Don region near Ukraine. At the same time, Russia deployed airborne forces (VDV) to Belarus, making it impossible for Ukraine to reroute forces from its north to its threatened southern frontier around Mariupol. And those VDV forces also clearly threaten an invasion of Belarus.

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Cyber strikes are also continuing. Ukraine’s government estimates that in November and December 2016, Russia staged 6,500 cyberattacks against various Ukrainian institutions, including the defense and finance ministries and the treasury.
Hackers also targeted Kiev’s power grid, which resulted in a blackout in parts of the capital. In fact, the first known power outage as a result of a cyberattack occurred one year before that, when Russian hackers took down the power grid in western Ukraine in December 2015.
There has also been a steady escalation in the number and size of Russian forces’ ceasefire violations since the beginning of 2017. During March 12-20 alone, there were 336 attacks that killed nine Ukrainian soldiers and wounded 35. And on March 23, former Russian Duma member Denis Voronenkov was murdered in broad daylight in Kiev and the Kharkiv munitions plant exploded, suggesting a return to state-sponsored terrorist attacks in Ukraine.
All of these actions, taken with the impending August-September Zapad-2017 exercise in Belarus, give rise to fears of a new intervention either in Ukraine, Belarus, or even the Caucasus, based on recent Russian deployments and actions.
Moreover, Putin’s domestic room for maneuver has narrowed and economic reform or growth is unlikely. In addition, the army is experiencing manpower shortages and the Russian defense budget has probably reached the limits of its present capacity.
It is possible that Putin feels pressed to strike sooner rather than later, especially if he wants to create a cause that justifies large-scale mobilization in advance of the 2018 elections, where he will emphasize Russia’s superpower status.
It is likely that a period of maximum danger to Ukraine, Belarus or the Caucasus is approaching.
Stephen Blank is a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council.

Slide 1 of 22: BERLIN, GERMANY - OCTOBER 19: Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting to discuss the Ukrainian peace process at the German federal Chancellery on October 19, 2016 in Berlin, Germany. The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany, known a

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1/22 SLIDES © Adam Berry/Getty Images

Vladimir Putin has dominated the Russian political scene for more than a decade, as president and prime minister of the country. Times magazine named him Person of the Year in 2007 and Forbes ranked him the world's most powerful man from 2013 to 2016 - four times in a row. Here are some facts that you may not know about the Russian president.

2/22 SLIDES © Alexei Nikolsky/Pool/REX

Underwater explorer

On Aug. 18, 2015, Putin took a ride in a mini-sub to explore the ruins of a 10th-century Byzantine trading ship (pictured). Putin was visiting Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. He's also done this in 2013 when he dove in a submersible in the Gulf of Finland to explore the remains of a naval frigate.

3/22 SLIDES © Olga Maltseva/AFP/Getty Images

Humble beginnings

Born on Oct. 7, 1952, he grew up in a communal apartment block (pictured) in Leningrad, now St. Petersburg, the Russian city ravaged by World War II. He shared the fifth-floor walk-up with his parents and two siblings.

4/22 SLIDES © Sovfoto/UIG/Getty Images

Family man

He married Lyudmila Putina in 1983, and the couple had two daughters: Maria and Katerina Putina. The children went to school under assumed names for security reasons. In April 2014, Putin and his wife separated after 31 years of marriage.
(Pictured) Putin with wife Lyudmila and daughter Maria in spring 1985.

5/22 SLIDES © SERGEI KARPUKHIN/Newscom/Reuters

Putin-themed Apple Watch

A gold-coated Apple Watch (pictured), which also depicts the Moscow skyline and the double-headed eagle of Russia's coat of arms, was made by the Russian-Italian jewelry brand, Caviar Perna Penna. At $3,073 (197,000 rubles), only 999 units of the "Putinwatch" were made.

6/22 SLIDES © AP Photo/Time Magazine

Time magazine cover

Renowned photographer Platon clicked Putin for the Time magazine cover (pictured), a simple head-shot that went on to win the World Press Photo 2008 award. Platon and Putin also bonded over their love for the Beatles during the shoot, after which Platon spent around $2,000 calling people to tell them about the experience.

7/22 SLIDES © SIPA Press/Rex Images; Alexey Druzhinin/AFP/Getty Images

Martial arts buff

His mother didn't approve of his decision to start learning judo when he was 11. An avid martial artist, Putin earned the fifth dan black belt in judo in 2001, the highest ranked ninth dan in taekwondo in 2013 and the eighth dan black belt in karate in 2014.
(Pictured, L) Putin, 15, practices judo. (R) Putin holds a judo training session at the Top Athletic School during his visit to St Petersburg on Dec. 18, 2009.

8/22 SLIDES © Alexsey Druginyn/AFP/Getty Images

Canine lover

The Russian President is a dog lover. He named his Bulgarian shepherd dog, Buffy (R), after holding a nationwide naming contest. His other dog is an Akita Inu named Yume (L). Most of his pets were gifted to him, including a goat Skazka, a dwarf horse named Vadik and even a Siberian tiger cub.

9/22 SLIDES © Alexey Druzhinin/AFP/Getty Images

Athletic politician

Putin enjoys "active leisure" wherein he enjoys fishing, horse-riding, whitewater rafting, scuba diving, skiing and ice hockey. He also frequents an open-air gym where he does some intensive weight training.
(Pictured) Putin does the butterfly stroke during his Siberian vacation on Aug. 3, 2009.

10/22 SLIDES © Bloomberg

KGB ties

After a stint at law school, Putin joined the KGB (main security agency for the Soviet Union until its collapse in 1991), rising to the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. During that period, he was posted to East Germany and monitored foreigners and consular officials in the main intelligence office there.

11/22 SLIDES © Alexey Druzhinin/AFP/Getty Images

Lenin connection

Putin's paternal grandfather, Spiridon Ivanovich Putin, worked as a chef at Lenin’s country house and later as Stalin's chef. Trained by the NKVD, a predecessor to the KGB, Spiridon passed on how to balance political instincts with survival to his grandson.
(Pictured) Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and Putin eat on a boat in Tuva, Siberia, on July 20, 2013, during a vacation.

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Expert in German language

Apart from Russian, Putin learned German in high school and speaks it fluently. He acted as an interpreter for German Chancellor Angela Merkel during her 2013 trip to Russia. He rarely uses English but picked up the language during his KGB stints in Europe.

13/22 SLIDES © ASSOCIATED PRESS

Powerful run

Putin has won overall approval of Russian citizens. In elections, he won 53 percent of the vote in 2000 and 73 percent in 2004, while his ally Dmitry Medvedev won 70 percent votes in 2008. According to public opinion surveys, Putin's domestic approval rating was 89 percent in June 2015, an all-time high.

14/22 SLIDES © Rex Images

Orthodox Christian

Although he was an atheist as a child, Putin turned to church after two major accidents during the 1990s - his wife's car accident and a house fire. Now he is a devout member of the Russian Orthodox Church.
(Pictured) Putin joins Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill at the St. Panteleimon monastery in Mount Athos, Greece, marking 1,000 years of Russian presence there.

15/22 SLIDES © RIA NOVOSTI/Newscom/Reuters

Sports fan

The Russian president leaves no opportunity to promote sports in the country. In 2010, he signed a deal with F1 boss Bernie Ecclestone to bring F1 racing to Russia for seven seasons, from 2014 to 2020 in Sochi.
(Pictured) Putin in a Renault Formula One team car at a racing track in the Leningrad Region on Nov. 7, 2010.

16/22 SLIDES © Oliver Killig/ullstein bild/Getty Images

Watch lover

Putin's most expensive watch is the $500,000 Tourbograph'Pour Le Mérite (pictured) by A. Lange & Söhne, with an 18-carat gold case, silver dial, crocodile skin strap and sapphire-crystal glass. He only wears watches on his right wrist so that the crown doesn't rub against his wrist.

Love for wildlife

After tracking and tranquilizing tigers and getting pictured with polar bears, Putin took his love for wildlife to another level in 2012 (pictured) when he flew a motorized deltaplane light aircraft in the Yamal Peninsula to lead Siberian cranes, raised in captivity, on a migration route.

Musical talent

Putin showed off his pipes during a charity event in St. Petersburg when he sang Fat Domino’s “Blueberry Hill” in front of an audience that included Sharon Stone, Kevin Costner and Goldie Hawn. His spokesperson later said Putin learned the lyrics in his English class.
(Pictured) Putin plays the piano during a charity concert in St. Petersburg on Dec. 10, 2010.

Made in Russia

Putin prefers Russian car brands, driving a yellow Lada Kalina, an ivory-colored 1956 Volga GAZ-21 and a black Niva. He’s even had the then U.S. President George W. Bush (pictured) take over the wheels of the Volga on his visit to Russia. His non-Russian cars include an armored Mercedes S 600 Guard Pullman and a Mercedes Geländewagen.

Firefighting pilot

Putin co-piloted a firefighting aircraft to douse two of the hundreds of wildfires over western Russia in 2010 (pictured). Television footage of the event showed him pushing the button that would release hundreds of liters of water on the fires.

Brand

One can find T-shirts with Putin’s face in gift stores across the country. The Putin brand can also be seen highlighted in Putinka, a vodka made by the state-owned Moscow Distillery Cristall company, the Gorbusha Putina caviar and PuTin canned foods made by Astrakhan Canned-food Plant.

Putinisms

Putin has made certain catchphrases really popular during his annual Q&A sessions, during which he takes questions from anyone across the country. An example is "shearing a pig," a phrase he used when asked why he hadn't extradited Edward Snowden, the U.S. whistleblower, in 2013. Putin said he won't respond to that issue because "it's like shearing a pig - lots of squeal but little wool."

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<p>The RCMP used controversial spy technology to track cell phone data in 19 criminal investigations last year.</p>

RCMP admit phone tracker use

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